---
title: "Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-be-ufc-flyweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1201971.29
venues: ["Polymarket", "Polymarket US"]
categories: ["Sports", "MMA"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:51:39+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-ufc-flyweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026
---

# Who will be UFC Flyweight champion at the end of 2026?

Live · $1,201,971 traded · listed on Polymarket, Polymarket US

## About

This market asks who will hold the official UFC Flyweight championship on December 31, 2026, resolving via UFC's listed division champions. Interim titleholders do not count, and a vacant belt at check time resolves to "Other." Two platforms carry the market: Polymarket, which holds essentially all of the roughly $1.18M in volume, and Polymarket US, which is currently dormant on volume but still shows quoted prices.

Alexandre Pantoja is the consensus favourite at 69.0%, though the two venues disagree sharply on how commanding his lead is: Polymarket US prices him at 89.0%, while Polymarket has him at just 50.5%. Joshua Van is the clear second choice, quoted at 68.0% on Polymarket US and 48.0% on Polymarket — a similarly wide gap. Beyond the top two, the field thins quickly, with Brandon Royval, Manel Kape, Brandon Moreno, Amir Albazi, Muhammad Mokaev, and Kai Kara-France all clustered in the 3–4% consensus range, and names like Tatsuro Taira, Kyoji Horiguchi, and Steve Erceg trailing below 1% on Polymarket.

The notable pattern is the roughly 20–39 point spread between Polymarket US and Polymarket on both Pantoja and Van, suggesting materially different pricing of the champion-versus-challenger dynamic across the two venues.

_AI-written summary written 2026-08-24; its figures date from then — the table below is live._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 96% | 94¢ on Polymarket US | 99¢ | 94¢ |
| Manel Kape | 4% | 3¢ on Polymarket | 3¢ | 10¢ |
| Brandon Royval | 2% | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ | 3¢ |
| Muhammad Mokaev | 2% | 2¢ on Polymarket US | — | 2¢ |
| Alexandre Pantoja | 1% | 0.2¢ on Polymarket | 0.2¢ | 3¢ |
| Tatsuro Taira | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ | 2¢ |
| Brandon Moreno | — | 1.2¢ on Polymarket | 1.2¢ | 2¢ |
| Amir Albazi | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ | 1¢ |
| Asu Almabayev | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ | — |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ | — |
| Tim Elliott | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ | — |
| Steve Erceg | — | 0.1¢ on Polymarket | 0.1¢ | — |
| Kai Kara-France | — | 3¢ on Polymarket US | — | 3¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5056?via=md)
- [Polymarket US](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/299653?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-be-ufc-flyweight-champion-at-the-end-of-2026.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.