---
title: "Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election? — Before Aug 26, 2029"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-become-chancellor-of-germany-following-the-next-federal-election-before-aug-26-2029
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2029-08-26T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1681.04
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:17:24+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-become-chancellor-of-germany-following-the-next-federal-election-before-aug-26-2029
---

# Who will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election? — Before Aug 26, 2029

Live · $1,681 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the next German federal election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Chancellor, commands the confidence of the Bundestag, and exercises the full powers of the office rather than serving in a caretaker or acting capacity.

A person who becomes Chancellor through an intra-term change of government, without a new federal election, does NOT resolve this market
If no government has formed by Aug 26, 2029, No one resolves YES and every other market resolves NO
If new elections are called before a government forms, No one resolves YES immediately

This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details. For this market a qualifying declaration must identify the person who will hold the Chancellorship following government formation; a declaration that a party has won the election does NOT qualify.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz | 18% | 22¢ on Kalshi | 22¢ |
| Alice Weidel | 14% | 17¢ on Kalshi | 17¢ |
| Felix Banaszak | 9% | 13¢ on Kalshi | 13¢ |
| Lars Klingbeil | — | — | — |
| Baerbel Bas | — | — | — |
| No one | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/403546?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-become-chancellor-of-germany-following-the-next-federal-election-before-aug-26-2029.

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