---
title: "Who will have a #1 hit this year? — 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-have-a-1-hit-this-year-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-21T05:01:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 255473.03
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Entertainment"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:34:02+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-have-a-1-hit-this-year-2026
---

# Who will have a #1 hit this year? — 2026

Live · $255,473 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

This market and these products have not been endorsed by Billboard. Any references to "Billboard", the "Hot 100," or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Billboard and Kalshi. For the purposes of this market, the last Billboard chart that will be included is the one published for Dec 26, 2026.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mariah Carey | 92% | 93¢ on Kalshi | 93¢ |
| Morgan Wallen | 30% | 31¢ on Kalshi | 31¢ |
| Beyoncé | 27% | 29¢ on Kalshi | 29¢ |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 20% | 22¢ on Kalshi | 22¢ |
| Kendrick Lamar | 19% | 21¢ on Kalshi | 21¢ |
| Post Malone | 17% | 17¢ on Kalshi | 17¢ |
| Tate McRae | 16% | 18¢ on Kalshi | 18¢ |
| Olivia Dean | 14% | 15¢ on Kalshi | 15¢ |
| Billie Eilish | 13% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ |
| Lady Gaga | 12% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ |
| Don Toliver | 12% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ |
| KAROL G | 12% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ |
| SZA | 12% | 13¢ on Kalshi | 13¢ |
| Chappell Roan | 11% | 15¢ on Kalshi | 15¢ |
| Justin Bieber | 11% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |
| Future | 10% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |
| Tame Impala | 10% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |
| The Weeknd | 9% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |
| Travis Scott | 8% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |
| Megan Thee Stallion | 8% | 10¢ on Kalshi | 10¢ |
| PinkPantheress | 7% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |
| Frank Ocean | 7% | 8¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ |
| SIENNA SPIRO | 7% | 8¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ |
| Luke Combs | 7% | 8¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ |
| Young Thug | 7% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |
| Lil Uzi Vert | 7% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |
| Dua Lipa | 7% | 8¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ |
| KATSEYE | 6% | 8¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ |
| sombr | 6% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Zach Bryan | 6% | 8¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ |
| Nicki Minaj | 6% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Tyler, The Creator | 6% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Ed Sheeran | 6% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Benson Boone | 5% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Zara Larsson | 5% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Lil Wayne | 5% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Lana Del Rey | 5% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Alex Warren | 5% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Doechii | 5% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Kanye West / Ye | 5% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Chris Brown | 5% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| J Balvin | 5% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Gracie Abrams | 4% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Shawn Mendes | 4% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Shaboozey | 4% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |
| Khalid | 4% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| mgk | 4% | 5¢ on Kalshi | 5¢ |
| David Guetta | 4% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Leon Thomas | 4% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |
| Charli xcx | 4% | 6¢ on Kalshi | 6¢ |

_66 more outcomes on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2530?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-have-a-1-hit-this-year-2026.

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