---
title: "Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel? — HHS Secretary, Defense Secretary and FBI Director"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-leave-office-first-rfk-jr-hegseth-or-patel-hhs-secretary-defense-secretary-and-fbi-director
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2029-01-20T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 18626.7
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:21:43+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-leave-office-first-rfk-jr-hegseth-or-patel-hhs-secretary-defense-secretary-and-fbi-director
---

# Who will leave office first: RFK Jr., Hegseth, or Patel? — HHS Secretary, Defense Secretary and FBI Director

Live · $18,627 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The individual must actually leave office and no longer hold their title. An announcement of resignation or intention to leave is not sufficient. The person who held the position at market issuance must be the one who leaves (not a successor). Officials can leave office through resignation, firing, removal, impeachment and removal, or any other process by which they cease to hold the position. A change in the name of an office, including renaming the Secretary of Defense as the Secretary of War, does not constitute leaving that position. The first official to leave triggers resolution for all markets in the set - the one who left resolves to Yes, all others resolve to No.

In the event of death, the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death, unless such a price is not available, not logically consistent, or not representative of a fair settlement value, in which case the Exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 54% | 64¢ on Kalshi | 64¢ |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 38% | 40¢ on Kalshi | 40¢ |
| Kash Patel | 10% | 18¢ on Kalshi | 18¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/664491?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-leave-office-first-rfk-jr-hegseth-or-patel-hhs-secretary-defense-secretary-and-fbi-director.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.