---
title: "Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — During Trump's term"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-leave-trumps-cabinet-next-during-trumps-term-kalshi-305428ca
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2029-01-20T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2618.08
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T05:47:54+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-leave-trumps-cabinet-next-during-trumps-term-kalshi-305428ca
---

# Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? — During Trump's term

Live · $2,618 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## About

If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A person’s announcement of their intent to leave and their departure count as one occurrence, at the earlier of the two. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position. Susie Wiles' departure as Chief of Staff, announced on Nov 6, 2026, occurred before Issuance and does not count. 

For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well as the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. Acting roles are not included. Leaving office as a result of death is not encompassed by the Payout Criterion.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 36% | 26¢ on Polymarket | 38¢ | 26¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 17% | 7¢ on Polymarket | 20¢ | 7¢ |
| Russell Vought | 14% | 23¢ on Polymarket | — | 23¢ |
| Jay Clayton | 9% | 8¢ on Polymarket | 14¢ | 8¢ |
| Markwayne Mullin | 9% | 12¢ on Polymarket | — | 12¢ |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 9% | 12¢ on Polymarket | — | 12¢ |
| Stephen Miller | 8% | 13¢ on Kalshi | 13¢ | 18¢ |
| Doug Burgum | 8% | 11¢ on Polymarket | — | 11¢ |
| None before 2029 | 7% | 10¢ on Polymarket | — | 10¢ |
| Lee Zeldin | 7% | 10¢ on Polymarket | — | 10¢ |
| Howard Lutnick | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| Sean Duffy | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| John Ratcliffe | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| Jamieson Greer | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| Keith Sonderling | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| J.D. Vance | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| Scott Bessent | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| Kelly Loeffler | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| Scott Turner | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| Chris Wright | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| Doug Collins | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| Todd Blanche | 6% | 9¢ on Polymarket | — | 9¢ |
| Linda McMahon | 5% | 9.1¢ on Kalshi | 9.1¢ | 16¢ |
| Brooke Rollins | 4% | 8.8¢ on Kalshi | 8.8¢ | 17¢ |
| Michael Kratsios | — | — | — | — |
| Mike Waltz | — | 17¢ on Polymarket | — | 17¢ |
| Christopher Phelan | — | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1166116?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1168580?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-leave-trumps-cabinet-next-during-trumps-term-kalshi-305428ca).

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