---
title: "Who will release a new song this year? — 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-release-a-new-song-this-year-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-08T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 50538.38
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Entertainment"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:26:07+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-release-a-new-song-this-year-2026
---

# Who will release a new song this year? — 2026

Live · $50,538 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

The market resolves based on public availability on Spotify under the artist's official discography. For markets specifying "new song" or "new music," the release must be an original composition first released during the time period. Re-recordings (unless in a new language), remasters, radio edits, clean/explicit versions of existing tracks, remixes, live versions, acoustic versions, instrumentals, demos, alternative takes, or reproductions of songs already on Spotify do not qualify as "new." Songs released in a new language count as new releases. Cosmetic changes like title edits, artwork updates, or re-uploads of the same audio do not constitute new releases. If a release is withdrawn after appearing on Spotify, it still qualifies if verifiably public at any point during the time period. The effective release time is the first verified moment of public availability, regardless of displayed metadata dates. Region-limited or staggered releases qualify once publicly available in any official Spotify market. If the artist is deceased, posthumous releases attributed to them as primary or featured performer still qualify.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lil Nas X | 99% | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| Tate McRae | 98% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Justin Timberlake | 88% | 99¢ on Kalshi | 99¢ |
| The Marías | 84% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Fall Out Boy | 82% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Dua Lipa | 79% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Post Malone | 79% | 97¢ on Kalshi | 97¢ |
| Clairo | 78% | 94¢ on Kalshi | 94¢ |
| PARTYNEXTDOOR | 72% | 93¢ on Kalshi | 93¢ |
| Bad Bunny | 55% | 96¢ on Kalshi | 96¢ |
| Eminem | 54% | 90¢ on Kalshi | 90¢ |
| Nicki Minaj | 47% | 82¢ on Kalshi | 82¢ |
| Rihanna | 44% | 58¢ on Kalshi | 58¢ |
| Billie Eilish | 44% | 75¢ on Kalshi | 75¢ |
| Justin Bieber | 44% | 84¢ on Kalshi | 84¢ |
| Kendrick Lamar | 42% | 77¢ on Kalshi | 77¢ |
| Olivia Dean | 42% | 70¢ on Kalshi | 70¢ |
| NF | 41% | 73¢ on Kalshi | 73¢ |
| Addison Rae | 40% | 68¢ on Kalshi | 68¢ |
| Linkin Park | 38% | 63¢ on Kalshi | 63¢ |
| Frank Ocean | 26% | 47¢ on Kalshi | 47¢ |
| Daft Punk | 11% | 17¢ on Kalshi | 17¢ |
| Taylor Swift | — | — | — |
| Beyoncé | — | — | — |
| Sam Smith | — | — | — |
| Daniel Caesar | — | — | — |
| Stray Kids | — | — | — |
| Childish Gambino | — | — | — |
| Benson Boone | — | — | — |
| PinkPantheress | — | — | — |
| Ed Sheeran | — | — | — |
| Lil Uzi Vert | — | — | — |
| Big Sean | — | — | — |
| Roddy Ricch | — | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Camilo | — | — | — |
| Coldplay | — | 85¢ on Kalshi | 85¢ |
| Ice Spice | — | — | — |
| Zara Larsson | — | 97¢ on Kalshi | 97¢ |
| Shawn Mendes | — | 72¢ on Kalshi | 72¢ |
| Geese | — | 82¢ on Kalshi | 82¢ |
| The Weeknd | — | 89¢ on Kalshi | 89¢ |
| Mariah Carey | — | 71¢ on Kalshi | 71¢ |
| Chappell Roan | — | 75¢ on Kalshi | 75¢ |
| Migos | — | 97¢ on Kalshi | 97¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/293311?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-release-a-new-song-this-year-2026.

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