---
title: "Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries? — At least one state"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/who-will-win-a-state-in-the-2028-democratic-primaries-at-least-one-state
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-09-01T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3.08
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:27:03+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-win-a-state-in-the-2028-democratic-primaries-at-least-one-state
---

# Who will win a state in the 2028 Democratic primaries? — At least one state

Live · $3 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.

Only a statewide primary or caucus held in one of the 50 states or the District of Columbia counts, and in each of them only the one that allocates the most Democratic national convention delegates from that state or district (the earlier one if two allocate the same number). For New Hampshire, the contest is the Democratic presidential primary conducted by the New Hampshire Secretary of State, and for Iowa it is the first statewide presidential preference vote the Iowa Democratic Party conducts that reports a statewide count of votes for candidates, whether or not the Democratic National Committee recognizes either one. The winner of a contest is the candidate with the most votes in its final round of counting, not delegates or state delegate equivalents, and only a projection of that candidate counts toward accelerated determination. "Uncommitted" and similar ballot options are not candidates. A contest that is not held before Sep 1, 2028, or that reports no statewide vote count, does NOT count.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | — | — | — |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | — | — | — |
| Gavin Newsom | — | — | — |
| Pete Buttigieg | — | — | — |
| Josh Shapiro | — | — | — |
| Andy Beshear | — | — | — |
| Kamala Harris | — | — | — |
| Mark Kelly | — | — | — |
| James Talarico | — | — | — |
| Abdul El-Sayed | — | — | — |
| Wes Moore | — | — | — |
| Raphael Warnock | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1164799?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/who-will-win-a-state-in-the-2028-democratic-primaries-at-least-one-state).

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