---
title: "Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-31T16:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2170.66
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T14:05:40+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026
---

# Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?

Live · $2,171 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. 

If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total. A storm that briefly moves over open water and returns to make an additional landfall counts as a separate landfall only if the NHC's own reporting identifies it as such; a single continuous track that does not leave and re-strike land counts once.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward at the time of landfall. However, if a subsequent advisory or correction identifies a qualifying landfall that was not reflected in initial reporting, that landfall will be added to the count.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 76% | 87¢ on Polymarket | 87¢ |
| Yes | 24% | 35¢ on Polymarket | 35¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/93133?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-2-or-more-hurricanes-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-2026.

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