---
title: "Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-a-ballot-initiative-on-california-secession-qualify-for-a-vote-before-2030
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2030-01-01T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1663.09
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:19:53+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-a-ballot-initiative-on-california-secession-qualify-for-a-vote-before-2030
---

# Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?

Live · $1,663 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the California Secretary of State officially certifies that at least one ballot initiative on California secession has qualified for the ballot before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 77% | 78¢ on Kalshi | 78¢ |
| Yes | 24% | 25¢ on Kalshi | 25¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/281?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-a-ballot-initiative-on-california-secession-qualify-for-a-vote-before-2030.

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