---
title: "Will a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-a-category-3-hurricane-make-landfall-in-tampa-before-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 11185.61
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:23:36+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-a-category-3-hurricane-make-landfall-in-tampa-before-2027
---

# Will a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?

Live · $11,186 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If a Category 3 hurricane makes landfall in Tampa (defined coastal area: the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida) from October 8, 2026 at 8:00:00 PM EDT until, but excluding, January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, as reported by the National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.

The specified coastal area for Tampa is the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida. The hurricane must be exactly Category 3 at landfall; a higher category does not satisfy this market. The center must cross this coastline from water to land. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules. The coverage period starts at listing and ends immediately before January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Yes | — | 2¢ on Kalshi | 2¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/769951?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-a-category-3-hurricane-make-landfall-in-tampa-before-2027.

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