---
title: "Will a Chinese AI model be #1 in 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-a-chinese-ai-model-be-1-in-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T04:59:59+00:00
total_volume_usd: 115.58
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:22:39+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-a-chinese-ai-model-be-1-in-2027
---

# Will a Chinese AI model be #1 in 2027?

Live · $116 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If any AI model developed by a company headquartered in China is the #1 model on Arena's Text Arena overall leaderboard (no style control) during Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am EST through Dec 31, 2027 at 11:59pm EST, then the market resolves to Yes.

Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them.

If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down.

Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Arena. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 67% | 71¢ on Kalshi | 71¢ |
| Yes | 33% | 37¢ on Kalshi | 37¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1159571?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-a-chinese-ai-model-be-1-in-2027).

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