---
title: "Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 213253.18
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:06:03+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027
---

# Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?

Live · $213,253 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95% | 96¢ on Polymarket | 96¢ |
| Yes | 5% | 5.8¢ on Polymarket | 5.8¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5529?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-a-us-ally-get-a-nuke-before-2027.

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