---
title: "Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-another-country-leave-opec-in-2026-polymarket-ed620aa9
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 242384.25
venues: ["Kalshi", "Limitless", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "Markets", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:17:58+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-another-country-leave-opec-in-2026-polymarket-ed620aa9
---

# Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?

Live · $242,384 traded · listed on Kalshi, Limitless, Polymarket

## About

On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.

Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Limitless | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 93% | 94¢ on Limitless | 94¢ | 94¢ | 94¢ |
| Yes | 7% | 6.5¢ on Limitless | 10¢ | 6.5¢ | 7¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1467?via=md)
- [Limitless](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/577403?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5501?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-another-country-leave-opec-in-2026-polymarket-ed620aa9).

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