---
title: "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-december-31
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 222991.12
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:10:07+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-december-31
---

# Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

Live · $222,991 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

_From Polymarket's listing._

## ↑ 1550

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 78% | 83¢ on Polymarket | 83¢ |
| Yes | 23% | 28¢ on Polymarket | 28¢ |

## Other markets

- ↑ 1500 — 2 outcomes
- ↑ 1600 — 2 outcomes
- ↑ 1650 — 2 outcomes
- ↑ 1700 — 2 outcomes
- ↑ 1510 — 2 outcomes
- ↑ 1520 — 2 outcomes
- ↑ 1530 — 2 outcomes
- ↑ 1540 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5546?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-any-ai-model-reach-overall-arena-score-by-december-31.

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