---
title: "Will any country leave NATO by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-any-country-leave-nato-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1421977.27
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:02:59+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-any-country-leave-nato-by
---

# Will any country leave NATO by...?

Live · $1,421,977 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31, 2026

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 6.8¢ on Polymarket | 6.8¢ |
| No | 95% | 97¢ on Polymarket | 97¢ |

## Other markets

- December 31, 2025 — 2 outcomes
- June 30, 2026 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5048?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-any-country-leave-nato-by.

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