---
title: "Will anyone win the 2026 Cape Verde Presidential election in the first round?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-anyone-win-the-2026-cape-verde-presidential-election-in-the-first-round
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-11-15T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3206.66
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-18T16:25:23+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-anyone-win-the-2026-cape-verde-presidential-election-in-the-first-round
---

# Will anyone win the 2026 Cape Verde Presidential election in the first round?

Live · $3,207 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## About

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes (more than 50% of valid votes) to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Cape Verde Presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round. In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round. In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes. Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies. The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds. Blank votes, null votes, and invalid ballots are excluded unless electoral law specifically includes them. The market resolves once the relevant electoral body declares whether anyone won the first round.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | 90¢ on Polymarket | 91¢ | 90¢ |
| No | 26% | 42¢ on Kalshi | 42¢ | 61¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/823505?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/816960?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-anyone-win-the-2026-cape-verde-presidential-election-in-the-first-round.

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