---
title: "Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026-polymarket-afeb9857
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T05:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 770388.79
venues: ["Kalshi", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Markets", "Crypto"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T18:54:07+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026-polymarket-afeb9857
---

# Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

Live · $770,389 traded · listed on Kalshi, Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.

If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 58% | 60¢ on Kalshi | 60¢ | 62¢ |
| Yes | 42% | 42¢ on Kalshi | 42¢ | 45¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2317?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5197?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026-polymarket-afeb9857.

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