---
title: "Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-bitcoin-replace-sha-256-before-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 197941.62
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Crypto", "Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:52:17+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-bitcoin-replace-sha-256-before-2027
---

# Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

Live · $197,942 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 99% | 99¢ on Polymarket | 99¢ |
| Yes | 1% | 1.6¢ on Polymarket | 1.6¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5359?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-bitcoin-replace-sha-256-before-2027.

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