---
title: "Will California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 be above 419.85?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-californias-seasonally-adjusted-purchase-only-hpi-for-q4-2026-be-above-41985
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-02-23T13:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 20640.6
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:42:02+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-californias-seasonally-adjusted-purchase-only-hpi-for-q4-2026-be-above-41985
---

# Will California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 be above 419.85?

Live · $20,641 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If California’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only HPI for Q4 2026 is above 

419.85, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is the index_sa value for California (CA), year 2026, quarter 4, in the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s quarterly state Purchase-Only House Price Index dataset. This is a Q4-over-Q4 comparison, not an annual average. The 419.85 baseline is fixed to the Q4 2025 value at Issuance; later revisions to Q4 2025 do not change the strike.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 62% | 62¢ on Kalshi | 62¢ |
| Yes | 39% | 39¢ on Kalshi | 39¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/350403?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-californias-seasonally-adjusted-purchase-only-hpi-for-q4-2026-be-above-41985.

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