---
title: "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-end-of-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 43753929.54
venues: ["Limitless", "Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:50:00+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-end-of-2026
---

# Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Live · $43,753,930 traded · listed on Limitless, Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Limitless | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 98% | 98¢ on Polymarket | 98¢ | 98¢ |
| Yes | 2% | 2.3¢ on Limitless | 2.3¢ | 2.4¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Limitless](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/9964?via=md)
- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4874?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-end-of-2026.

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