---
title: "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-07-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 472661.4
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:13:52+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027
---

# Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Live · $472,661 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 93% | 93¢ on Polymarket | 93¢ |
| Yes | 8% | 8¢ on Polymarket | 8¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5250?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-june-30-2027.

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