---
title: "Will China obtain an EUV machine? — Before Jan 1, 2030"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-china-obtain-an-euv-machine-before-jan-1-2030
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2011.83
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:11:20+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-china-obtain-an-euv-machine-before-jan-1-2030
---

# Will China obtain an EUV machine? — Before Jan 1, 2030

Live · $2,012 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. 

News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states event claim occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or
evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 54% | 59¢ on Kalshi | 59¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 10% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | — | — | — |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/29463?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-china-obtain-an-euv-machine-before-jan-1-2030.

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