---
title: "Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement? — Before Jan 2027"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-clarence-thomas-announce-his-retirement-before-jan-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 49184.27
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:48:01+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-clarence-thomas-announce-his-retirement-before-jan-2027
---

# Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement? — Before Jan 2027

Live · $49,184 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.

If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.

For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 38% | 42¢ on Kalshi | 42¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 13% | 14¢ on Kalshi | 14¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 8% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/293245?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-clarence-thomas-announce-his-retirement-before-jan-2027.

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