---
title: "Will Claude go down on __ days in October?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 7101.58
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:52:18+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october
---

# Will Claude go down on __ days in October?

Live · $7,102 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve according to the number of days in October 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.

Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.

A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.

This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| <5 | 4% | 6.2¢ on Polymarket | 6.2¢ |
| 5-7 | 44% | 48¢ on Polymarket | 48¢ |
| 8-10 | 34% | 37¢ on Polymarket | 37¢ |
| 11-13 | 20% | 29¢ on Polymarket | 29¢ |
| 14+ | 1% | 1.8¢ on Polymarket | 1.8¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/674176?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-claude-go-down-on-days-in-october.

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