---
title: "Will crypto market structure legislation become law? — Before 2026"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-crypto-market-structure-legislation-become-law-before-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 7201995.58
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics", "Crypto"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:16:09+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-crypto-market-structure-legislation-become-law-before-2026
---

# Will crypto market structure legislation become law? — Before 2026

Live · $7,201,996 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

For purposes of this Contract, "crypto market structure legislation" means any bill that does all of the following:

Establishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND
Delineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND
Creates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.

The following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:

Bills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure;
Bills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework;
Bills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs);
Appropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities;
Bills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions;
Executive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts);
Bills that pass only one chamber of Congress;
Bills that are vetoed and not overridden;
State legislation of any kind

Examples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion:

The Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, if passed by both chambers and signed into law;
The Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), if passed by both chambers and signed into law;
Any omnibus bill that includes comprehensive crypto market structure provisions as described above.

Examples that would NOT meet the Payout Criterion:

The GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation);
The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific);
A bill that passes the House but not the Senate;
An executive order directing agencies to study crypto regulation.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 19% | 22¢ on Kalshi | 22¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 18% | 18¢ on Kalshi | 18¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 16% | 19¢ on Kalshi | 19¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 10% | 12¢ on Kalshi | 12¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6% | 7¢ on Kalshi | 7¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 3% | 3¢ on Kalshi | 3¢ |
| Before May | — | — | — |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | — | — | — |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | — | — | — |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | — | 1¢ on Kalshi | 1¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | — | — | — |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4615?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-crypto-market-structure-legislation-become-law-before-2026.

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