---
title: "Will Hakeem Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot at the opening of the 120th Congress?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-hakeem-jeffries-be-elected-speaker-on-the-first-ballot-at-the-opening-of-the-120th-congress
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-02-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 45009.17
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:20:04+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-hakeem-jeffries-be-elected-speaker-on-the-first-ballot-at-the-opening-of-the-120th-congress
---

# Will Hakeem Jeffries be elected Speaker on the first ballot at the opening of the 120th Congress?

Live · $45,009 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If Hakeem Jeffries is elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives on the first ballot of the Speaker election at the opening of the 120th Congress before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The first ballot is the first roll-call vote for Speaker at the opening of the 120th Congress. The count is 1 if Hakeem Jeffries is declared elected Speaker on it, which requires a majority of the votes cast for a person by name, and 0 otherwise, including if no roll-call vote for Speaker is held before Feb 1, 2027.

The following do NOT count:
A later ballot on which Hakeem Jeffries is elected
A first ballot on which no candidate receives a majority, even if Hakeem Jeffries receives the most votes

The result is determined from the roll call record of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 92% | 92¢ on Kalshi | 93¢ |
| No | 9% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 8¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1156393?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-hakeem-jeffries-be-elected-speaker-on-the-first-ballot-at-the-opening-of-the-120th-congress).

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