---
title: "Will Haley Stevens leave the House Democratic Caucus before Jan 3, 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-haley-stevens-leave-the-house-democratic-caucus-before-jan-3-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-03T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1731.11
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T05:29:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-haley-stevens-leave-the-house-democratic-caucus-before-jan-3-2027
---

# Will Haley Stevens leave the House Democratic Caucus before Jan 3, 2027?

Live · $1,731 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If Haley Stevens leaves, announces that they are leaving, or is expelled from the House Democratic Caucus before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

If Haley Stevens changes their official party registration from the Democratic Party to another party or to independent/unaffiliated status, announces they are no longer a member of the House Democratic Caucus, or is expelled from the House Democratic Caucus by official party action, then the market will resolve to Yes.

Announcing a switch to another party or to independent status, or joining the House Republican Conference, counts as leaving the House Democratic Caucus.

The following do NOT count:
Being stripped of committee assignments while remaining in the House Democratic Caucus.
Temporary suspension from caucus activities or committees while remaining a member.
Loss of party endorsement or support while remaining a member.
Statements about considering leaving without actual departure.
Resignation from Congress or expulsion from Congress.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 75% | 75¢ on Kalshi | 75¢ |
| Yes | 26% | 26¢ on Kalshi | 26¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1104661?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-haley-stevens-leave-the-house-democratic-caucus-before-jan-3-2027).

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