---
title: "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3788214.17
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:06:56+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-hamas-agree-to-disarm-by
---

# Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Live · $3,788,214 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.

For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.

Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.

Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31, 2026

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 12¢ on Polymarket | 12¢ |
| No | 89% | 90¢ on Polymarket | 90¢ |

## Other markets

- February 28, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- March 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- June 30, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- November 30 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4990?via=md)

---

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