---
title: "Will Hezbollah disarm by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-hezbollah-disarm-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 3064956.86
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:21:24+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-hezbollah-disarm-by
---

# Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

Live · $3,064,957 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify. 

For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.

Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.

Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.

Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 9¢ on Polymarket | 9¢ |
| No | 92% | 93¢ on Polymarket | 93¢ |

## Other markets

- March 31 — 2 outcomes
- April 30 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/4960?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-hezbollah-disarm-by.

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