---
title: "Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum before 2030?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-ireland-announce-a-reunification-referendum-before-2030
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2030-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 4680.38
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:14:54+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-ireland-announce-a-reunification-referendum-before-2030
---

# Will Ireland announce a reunification referendum before 2030?

Live · $4,680 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the Republic of Ireland agrees to or announces a formal government decision to hold a national referendum in the Republic of Ireland on Irish reunification before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:

Formal signing of treaties
Parliamentary approval with binding effect
Official ratification
Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority
Official statements by authorized ministers
Official press releases
Formal declarations during government proceedings
Official statements to international bodies

Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.

The following do NOT qualify:

Preliminary discussions
Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances
Opposition party statements
Leaked documents
Think-tank recommendations
General aspirations without specific commitment
Draft legislation without approval
Regional actions (unless specified)
Retraction of previously announced commitments

The referendum must be a national poll in the Republic of Ireland on Irish reunification. An unequivocal Government of Ireland decision to hold the poll, an official statement recording that decision, a constitutional referendum Bill passed by both Houses of the Oireachtas, or a ministerial polling-day order qualifies. A polling date is not required, and voting may occur after January 1, 2030. Party pledges, consultations, citizens' assemblies, preparatory legislation or research, and general statements of intent do not qualify. A Northern Ireland border-poll announcement alone does not qualify.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 79% | 80¢ on Kalshi | 80¢ |
| Yes | 22% | 23¢ on Kalshi | 23¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/521814?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-ireland-announce-a-reunification-referendum-before-2030.

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