---
title: "Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 773915.13
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T07:19:14+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by
---

# Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Live · $773,915 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 13% | 14¢ on Polymarket | 14¢ |
| No | 87% | 88¢ on Polymarket | 88¢ |

## Other markets

- March 31, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- June 30 — 2 outcomes
- October 31 — 2 outcomes
- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/581931?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.