---
title: "Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned? — Pardon timeline"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-jair-bolsonaro-be-pardoned-pardon-timeline
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-03-01T05:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2679.04
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T14:01:22+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-jair-bolsonaro-be-pardoned-pardon-timeline
---

# Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned? — Pardon timeline

Live · $2,679 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

A pardon, commutation or amnesty granted by a competent Brazilian authority counts, including a decree or law that covers him without naming him, even if a court later suspends or annuls it. A court ruling that overturns or reduces his conviction or sentence, a law that only reduces penalties or changes sentence-progression rules for a class of convicts, and a change of custody such as house arrest do not count.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 80% | 88¢ on Kalshi | 88¢ |
| Before Jan 10, 2027 | — | — | — |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/772455?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-jair-bolsonaro-be-pardoned-pardon-timeline.

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