---
title: "Will Manhattan’s overall office vacancy rate for Q4 2026 be below 18.0%?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-manhattans-overall-office-vacancy-rate-for-q4-2026-be-below-180
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-31T14:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1475
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:19:37+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-manhattans-overall-office-vacancy-rate-for-q4-2026-be-below-180
---

# Will Manhattan’s overall office vacancy rate for Q4 2026 be below 18.0%?

Live · $1,475 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If Cushman & Wakefield reports that Manhattan’s overall office vacancy rate for Q4 2026 is below 

18.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is the Manhattan overall vacancy rate reported in Cushman & Wakefield’s Q4 2026 Manhattan Office MarketBeat, covering the overall Manhattan office market. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.

For reference, the same metric was 21.1% in Q4 2025, 19.9% in Q1 2026, and 19.3% in Q2 2026.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55% | 55¢ on Kalshi | 55¢ |
| No | 46% | 46¢ on Kalshi | 46¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/311769?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-manhattans-overall-office-vacancy-rate-for-q4-2026-be-below-180.

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