---
title: "Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-papua-new-guinea-ratify-bougainville-independence-bougainville-independence
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 15151.79
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:43:16+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-papua-new-guinea-ratify-bougainville-independence-bougainville-independence
---

# Will Papua New Guinea ratify Bougainville independence?

Live · $15,152 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves formal signing of treaties, parliamentary approval with binding effect, official ratification, formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority, official statements by authorized ministers, official press releases, formal declarations during government proceedings, or official statements to international bodies. Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory qualify. Preliminary discussions, conditional agreements contingent on circumstances, opposition party statements, leaked documents, think-tank recommendations, general aspirations without specific commitment, draft legislation without approval, and regional actions (unless specified) do NOT qualify. Retraction of previously announced commitments also does not satisfy the criterion.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 58% | 62¢ on Kalshi | 62¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14% | 16¢ on Kalshi | 16¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/487?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-papua-new-guinea-ratify-bougainville-independence-bougainville-independence.

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