---
title: "Will Republicans lose any \"Safe Republican\" Senate race?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-republicans-lose-any-safe-republican-senate-race
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-04T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 7217.23
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T10:06:53+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-republicans-lose-any-safe-republican-senate-race
---

# Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?

Live · $7,217 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican party nominee fails to win one or more of the Senate races listed below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The relevant races are the currently-scheduled United States Senate races in: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (Special), Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming. 

Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. 

Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions. 

In the event that the winner of an election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that election will not be considered for purposes of this market. 

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 71% | 71¢ on Polymarket | 71¢ |
| Yes | 30% | 30¢ on Polymarket | 30¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/625773?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-republicans-lose-any-safe-republican-senate-race.

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