---
title: "Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-russia-capture-mykolaivka-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 9926.3
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:27:46+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-russia-capture-mykolaivka-by
---

# Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by...?

Live · $9,926 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.854785° N, 37.770676° E in Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.

Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify:
- Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain
- Assessed Russian Advances

Shading under the following layers will not qualify:
- Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas
- Claimed Russian Territory

Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Intersection Location in Mykolaivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/M1-9c93c30975.png

Mykolaivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/m2-2562dd2b47.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/vaMZNEQuFL2b4JNPA

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## October 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2% | 2¢ on Polymarket | 2¢ |
| No | 98% | 99¢ on Polymarket | 99¢ |

## Other markets

- December 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/308848?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-russia-capture-mykolaivka-by.

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