---
title: "Will Russia capture Toretske by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-russia-capture-toretske-by
status: settled
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-01T03:59:00+00:00
settled_at: 2026-09-01T23:53:13+00:00
total_volume_usd: 161110.56
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-29T00:45:58+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-russia-capture-toretske-by
---

# Will Russia capture Toretske by...?

Settled · $161,111 traded · listed on Polymarket

## Result

**Yes** won. Settled 2026-09-01.

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To1.png

Intersection Location in Toretske: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To2.png

Toretske Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/To3.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/fs9k1LmA4CbPP4tLA 

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Other markets

- February 28 — 2 outcomes
- March 31 — 2 outcomes
- April 30 — 2 outcomes
- May 31 — 2 outcomes
- July 31 — 2 outcomes
- October 31 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5572?via=md)

---

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