---
title: "Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 5497361.77
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:25:50+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-by
---

# Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?

Live · $5,497,362 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.

Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31, 2026

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | 6¢ on Polymarket | 6¢ |
| No | 95% | 95¢ on Polymarket | 95¢ |

## Other markets

- December 31, 2025 — 2 outcomes
- June 30, 2026 — 2 outcomes
- September 30, 2026 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/600763?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-by.

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