---
title: "Will Russia target Kyiv on...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-russia-target-kyiv-on-polymarket-a0562c42
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 8760.09
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:24:45+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-russia-target-kyiv-on-polymarket-a0562c42
---

# Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

Live · $8,760 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered.

A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv.

The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia, including the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Mayor of Kyiv, the Kyiv City Military Administration, and the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (including posts on their official Telegram channels, e.g., the Air Force's channel at https://t.me/kpszsu), and a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## November 6

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | 100¢ on Polymarket | 100¢ |
| No | 2% | 4.5¢ on Polymarket | 4.5¢ |

## Other markets

- November 3 — 2 outcomes
- November 4 — 2 outcomes
- November 5 — 2 outcomes
- November 7 — 2 outcomes
- November 8 — 2 outcomes
- November 9 — 2 outcomes
- November 10 — 2 outcomes
- November 11 — 2 outcomes
- November 12 — 2 outcomes
- November 13 — 2 outcomes
- November 14 — 2 outcomes
- November 15 — 2 outcomes
- November 16 — 2 outcomes
- November 17 — 2 outcomes
- November 18 — 2 outcomes
- November 19 — 2 outcomes
- November 20 — 2 outcomes
- November 21 — 2 outcomes
- November 22 — 2 outcomes
- November 23 — 2 outcomes
- November 24 — 2 outcomes
- November 25 — 2 outcomes
- November 26 — 2 outcomes
- November 27 — 2 outcomes
- November 28 — 2 outcomes
- November 29 — 2 outcomes
- November 30 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1109946?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-russia-target-kyiv-on-polymarket-a0562c42).

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