---
title: "Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-tesla-launch-robotaxis-in-california-by-december-31
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 8793.65
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:16:17+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-tesla-launch-robotaxis-in-california-by-december-31
---

# Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31?

Live · $8,794 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. 

Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. 

This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 87% | 89¢ on Polymarket | 89¢ |
| Yes | 14% | 16¢ on Polymarket | 16¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/7290?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-tesla-launch-robotaxis-in-california-by-december-31.

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