---
title: "Will Tesla release Optimus by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-tesla-release-optimus-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 130098.15
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T08:11:26+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-tesla-release-optimus-by
---

# Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

Live · $130,098 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.

To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.

The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 8% | 7.7¢ on Polymarket | 7.7¢ |
| No | 93% | 93¢ on Polymarket | 93¢ |

## Other markets

- June 30 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5555?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-tesla-release-optimus-by.

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