---
title: "Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-10-year-minus-2-year-treasury-spread-be-above-100-between-issuance-and-december-31-2026
status: live
kickoff_at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2026-12-31T21:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2596.73
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T11:40:59+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-10-year-minus-2-year-treasury-spread-be-above-100-between-issuance-and-december-31-2026
---

# Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance and December 31, 2026?

Live · kickoff 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC · $2,597 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the FRED T10Y2Y series (10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity), measured in percent (not seasonally adjusted), on any daily observation dated between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026 (inclusive), is above 1.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Please note that intraday changes will not be reflected in the Underlying, as FRED only posts a single value per day.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 95% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Yes | 6% | 9¢ on Kalshi | 9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/2370?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-10-year-minus-2-year-treasury-spread-be-above-100-between-issuance-and-december-31-2026.

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