---
title: "Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-hit-550-by-oct-31-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2026-11-01T03:59:59+00:00
total_volume_usd: 6229.09
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T06:09:34+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-hit-550-by-oct-31-2026
---

# Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?

Live · $6,229 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 10-year generic constant-maturity tenor is at least 5.50% on any business day from October 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM EDT through October 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM EDT, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.

This market uses the 10-year generic constant-maturity Treasury tenor and the U.S. Department of the Treasury Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate. The observation period is from October 1, 2026 at 12:00 AM EDT through October 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM EDT, inclusive. A published rate of 5.50% or higher for any business day in that period satisfies the threshold; intraday values are not considered. Rates are expressed to two decimal places. Revisions after expiration are not considered. Treasury does not publish on weekends or federal holidays; the contract's preceding-business-day provision applies. If the payout condition occurs, expiration may move earlier under Rule 7.2. Otherwise, expiration is 10:00 AM ET one week after the final day of the observation period. Settlement is no later than the following day, subject to Rule 7.1.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90% | 90¢ on Kalshi | 90¢ |
| Yes | 11% | 11¢ on Kalshi | 11¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/756927?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-10y-us-treasury-yield-hit-550-by-oct-31-2026.

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