---
title: "Will the 12-month percent change in average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for any reference month from August 2026 through July 2027 be above 3.7%?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-12-month-percent-change-in-average-hourly-earnings-of-all-employees-on-private-nonfarm-payrolls-for-any-reference-month-from-august-2026-through-july-2027-be-above-37
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-08-06T12:29:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 769.49
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Markets"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:17:46+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-12-month-percent-change-in-average-hourly-earnings-of-all-employees-on-private-nonfarm-payrolls-for-any-reference-month-from-august-2026-through-july-2027-be-above-37
---

# Will the 12-month percent change in average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for any reference month from August 2026 through July 2027 be above 3.7%?

Live · $769 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If BLS reports that the 12-month percent change in average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls for any reference month from August 2026 through July 2027, inclusive, is strictly above 3.7%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The market will use the 12-month percent change reported by BLS in the Employment Situation release for series CES0500000003. Settlement is based on the value initially reported for that reference month and subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 72% | 75¢ on Kalshi | 75¢ |
| Yes | 28% | 32¢ on Kalshi | 32¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/440837?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-12-month-percent-change-in-average-hourly-earnings-of-all-employees-on-private-nonfarm-payrolls-for-any-reference-month-from-august-2026-through-july-2027-be-above-37.

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