---
title: "Will the bull case for Trump occur in 2026?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-bull-case-for-trump-occur-in-2026
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-12-31T15:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 604842.63
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T15:34:57+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-bull-case-for-trump-occur-in-2026
---

# Will the bull case for Trump occur in 2026?

Live · $604,843 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If **ALL** of the following occur:

1. Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND
2. Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND
3. U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND
4. The U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026

then the market resolves to Yes.

This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.

Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset:

- "Will Trump's VoteHub approval rating rise above 48% in 2026?" uses POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD
- "Will Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms?" uses CONTROL
- "Will U.S. GDP grow by more than 5% in any quarter from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 (inclusive)?" uses LGDP
- "Will the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stay below 5% in 2026?" uses ECONSTAT

For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.

Additional specifications: POLLINGAPPROVALINPERIOD - the threshold need only be met once during the period; CONTROL - based on the Speaker of the House and President Pro Tempore of the Senate on Feb 1, 2027; LGDP - based on real GDP, quarter-over-quarter percent change, seasonally adjusted at annual rates (SAAR)

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| Yes | 3% | 3.9¢ on Kalshi | 3.9¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/292924?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-bull-case-for-trump-occur-in-2026.

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