---
title: "Will the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 be above 20%?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-decline-in-canadian-resident-return-trips-from-the-united-states-for-2026-be-above-20
status: live
kickoff_at: 2027-02-23T00:00:00+00:00
trading_closes_at: 2027-02-23T13:29:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 29633.25
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: []
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T05:19:17+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-decline-in-canadian-resident-return-trips-from-the-united-states-for-2026-be-above-20
---

# Will the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 be above 20%?

Live · kickoff 2027-02-23 00:00 UTC · $29,633 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If Statistics Canada reports that the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 is greater than 20% compared with 2025 in its "Travel between Canada and other countries, December 2026" release, then the market resolves to Yes.

The relevant figure is the full-year 2026 year-over-year percentage change for “Canadian-resident return trips from the United States,” as stated in Statistics Canada’s release text or related tables. If Statistics Canada does not publish a full-year percentage-change figure for 2026, the market will resolve using the percentage change calculated from Statistics Canada’s annual table for the same series.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 92% | 93¢ on Kalshi | 93¢ |
| Yes | 9% | 10¢ on Kalshi | 10¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/1261?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-decline-in-canadian-resident-return-trips-from-the-united-states-for-2026-be-above-20.

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