---
title: "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-by
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 1050902.24
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T09:58:16+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-by
---

# Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

Live · $1,050,902 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## December 31, 2026

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | 4.3¢ on Polymarket | 4.3¢ |
| No | 96% | 97¢ on Polymarket | 97¢ |

## Other markets

- June 30, 2027 — 2 outcomes
- December 31, 2027 — 2 outcomes

_Every market's prices are on the event page._

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/5096?via=md)

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Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-doge-1-lunar-mission-launch-by.

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