---
title: "Will the DOJ fine Nvidia over the Groq deal before 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-doj-fine-nvidia-over-the-groq-deal-before-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-01-01T04:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 2183.21
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics", "Tech & Science"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T12:27:45+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-doj-fine-nvidia-over-the-groq-deal-before-2027
---

# Will the DOJ fine Nvidia over the Groq deal before 2027?

Live · $2,183 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the U.S. Department of Justice announces a fine or civil/criminal monetary penalty imposed on Nvidia, or agreed to by Nvidia in a settlement, concerning the Groq licensing deal announced on December 24, 2025 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

An agreed settlement can qualify before court approval.

Investigations, information demands, subpoenas, civil investigative demands, requests for penalties, statements about possible future fines, nonmonetary relief, and unrelated fines do NOT count.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88% | 90¢ on Kalshi | 90¢ |
| Yes | 13% | 15¢ on Kalshi | 15¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/496251?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-doj-fine-nvidia-over-the-groq-deal-before-2027.

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