---
title: "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30-2027
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2027-07-01T03:59:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 10736.35
venues: ["Polymarket"]
categories: ["Politics", "World"]
prices_as_of: 2026-10-09T13:17:37+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30-2027
---

# Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?

Live · $10,736 traded · listed on Polymarket

## About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.

Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.

Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

_From Polymarket's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 86% | 86¢ on Polymarket | 86¢ |
| Yes | 14% | 15¢ on Polymarket | 15¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Polymarket](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/684600?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30-2027.

BetCrypto is an odds-comparison and information service. It accepts no wagers and gives no betting or financial advice; prediction-market availability depends on where you live.