---
title: "Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson"
canonical_url: https://betcrypto.now/events/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-eric-guerrero-in-guerrero-v-johnson
status: live
trading_closes_at: 2028-08-01T14:00:00+00:00
total_volume_usd: 404.02
venues: ["Kalshi"]
categories: ["Politics"]
prices_as_of: 2026-11-07T04:47:56+00:00
publisher: BetCrypto
data_api: https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-eric-guerrero-in-guerrero-v-johnson
---

# Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Eric Guerrero in Guerrero v. Johnson

Live · $404 traded · listed on Kalshi

## About

If the Supreme Court, in Guerrero v. Johnson, rules a habeas claim does not rely on a previously unavailable new constitutional rule when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in an earlier federal habeas petition, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled that a habeas claim does not rely on a “new rule of constitutional law, made retroactive to cases on collateral review by the Supreme Court, that was previously unavailable” when the petitioner could have asserted a claim based on that rule in a prior federal habeas petition, regardless of whether the earlier claim would have succeeded, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. The market resolves to No if the Court holds that such a claim may qualify as previously unavailable because it lacked a possibility of merit when the earlier petition was filed, or if the case is dismissed, dismissed as improvidently granted, or remanded without a merits ruling on this question.

_From Kalshi's listing._

## Main market

| Outcome | Probability | Cheapest | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53% | 98¢ on Kalshi | 98¢ |
| No | 47% | 92¢ on Kalshi | 92¢ |

## Open on a venue

- [Kalshi](https://betcrypto.now/go/e/993322?via=md)

---

Probability is the cross-venue consensus (book midpoints, 0–100%). Venue columns are what buying costs there (the ask). Prices move constantly; re-check at the canonical URL or the [JSON API](https://betcrypto.now/api/v1/events/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-eric-guerrero-in-guerrero-v-johnson).

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